Math Is Not A Thing For The Gossip Kids

They have wicked bad trouble with it--but let's be fair, so does Nate Silver.  Silver seems especially reluctant to admit what did happen to the polling for the 2016, and I'm not sure why.  Maybe he's afraid of revealing how full of shit he is, but that's a done deal.  Silver probably understands that the polls were quite accurate except for one fairly serious mistake: the turnout model.  Most polls used Obama and Romney turnouts more or less--but nothing radically different.  That modelling of the electorate is what makes a poll a poll.  None of the pollsters believed that Dem turnout would be so stupendously low.  They fucked up, but they all fucked up for the same reason.  The polls and the probabilities weren't shit because a bunch of asswipes were trying to fuck everything up, but they wound up so far off because nobody built a model where GOP turnout was down but Dem turnout was way the fuck down.  Had they done that, the polls would have been much closer and then Nate Silver's bullshit and Sam Wang's state polls all would have been much more useful in predicting the finish.  Those models of the likely electorate would opened up the possibility that a very small change along the margin in a few key states could change an electoral blowout for Clinton into an electoral blowout for Trump or vice versa, but nobody picked that up because if the Dems had voted for Clinton they way had voted for Obama numbers-wise, a few pissy white trash union dipshits would not have been enough to shift the victory to Trump.  The gossip kids prove they are not gonna understand that shit, though.  Math is hard.