Saturday, March 1, 2014

What Will It Be? Republic Of Crimea?

East Ukraine and West Ukraine?  My biggest fear is that Putin doesn't have a plan, and maybe doesn't quite know how he wants this to end up.  I'm sure the best outcome for Putin and Russia would be a stable, nominally democratic Ukraine firmly allied with the Russian Federation, with no more shooting, no military action and as little embarrassing coverage as possible.  Is that still possible now?  Sure...

So, the Crimean region would probably be up for an alliance with Russia, but what about the rest of Ukraine?  Partition and such would be an ugly throwback and constant reminder of all the nastiness that went down proceeding it, not at all what the Russians want.  An outright, full-on invasion would be a tremendous public relations problem for Putin, as well as an inconvenience for the Ukrainian people.

Fortunately for everyone, there is nothing that the United States can do.  Russia holds the cards militarily, the European Union has ginormous economic and energy interests at stake, and unless the US is going to nuke Putin, no ability to impose our will unilaterally.  That is about the only truly helpful reality right now.

What's the solution which will prevent violence and allow the Ukrainians, the Russians, and the EU all to claim victory?  This is the answer the United States should be pursuing right now, all the while pretending we only want what's best for the (other) interested parties.  The teabaggers and the unreconstructed Cold War retards in America--who have been as wrong as wrong can be about every single issue facing the world for at least 70 years--would hate it, but it would be the best American contribution to geopolitics in quite a while.

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